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Though Baltimore kicker Billy Cundiff's stunning miss of a short field goal attempt in the closing seconds may forever stand as the signature moment of the Ravens' 23-20 loss to the Patriots, Moore's heads-up negation of a would-be touchdown pass shortly prior to Cundiff's shank was equally vital to New England earning a trip to Indianapolis for Super Bowl XLVI. The previously- unknown 21-year-old smartly jarred the ball out of the arms of Baltimore receiver Lee Evans in the end zone with 22 seconds left, preserving the Pats' tenuous three-point advantage and gaining a surge of instant notoriety in the process.
"When you think about it, that play is our season," said Patriots safety James Ihedigbo. "That's everything we worked for right there and [Moore] knocks that ball out of the Lee Evans' hands and comes back again and makes another play on third down. He played amazing, can't say enough about that guy."
Fellow cornerback Kyle Arrington, himself an undrafted free agent who was cut by both Philadelphia and Tampa Bay before finding a home among New England's rag-tag bunch in 2009, tied for the NFL lead with seven interceptions this season. Outside linebacker Rob Ninkovich, a two-year starter and one of the defense's smartest and most versatile members, was also released by two other organizations. A front line that kept Ravens All-Pro running back Ray Rice squarely under wraps in the AFC title game contains a seventh-round draft pick (Brandon Deaderick) and a college free agent (Kyle Love).
While that ability to plug holes with scrap-heap talent speaks to the savvy and evaluation skills of Belichick and player personnel director Nick Caserio, New England's reliance on castoffs and obscure players hasn't exactly been by design. Season-ending injuries to regulars such as veteran end Andre Carter, promising rookie corner Ras-I Dowling and safety Josh Barrett have greatly tested the defense's depth, and despite the Patriots' reputation for superb drafts, the team has had a considerable amount of misses on the defensive side in recent years.
New England selected seven defensive players in the first three rounds of the two drafts that followed the franchise's last Super Bowl appearance, the memorable 17-14 loss to the New York Giants in Arizona during the 2007 season. The Pats did hit a home run with linebacker Jerod Mayo, a 2008 first-round choice and one of the group's linchpins, and safety Patrick Chung has developed into a reliable contributor since being tabbed in the second round the subsequent year. However, cornerbacks Terrence Wheatley (2nd Round, 2008) and Darius Butler (2nd Round, 2009), linebackers Shawn Crable (3rd Round, 2008) and Tyrone McKenzie (3rd Round, 2009) and lineman Ron Brace (2nd Round, 2009) never panned out, and Brace is the only one of those five that currently remains with the organization.
The performance has been markedly better down the stretch, however, and particularly so during the playoffs. The Patriots yielded a season-low 252 total yards in their 45-10 shellacking of unexpected AFC West winner Denver in the Divisional Round, and the defense continually stood tall at important times in the hard-fought victory over Baltimore, holding the Ravens to only one touchdown in four red-zone visits on the afternoon.
"This team is [a bunch of] warriors," said longtime tackle Vince Wilfork, who's amassed 3 1/2 sacks over that time frame. "They're a bunch of fighters, coaches and everybody. This whole organization is just a special group of guys and I love playing for guys like this."
Below is a capsule look at the defense of the New England Patriots, with regular season statistics in parentheses:
Inside Linebackers: The presence of Mayo (95 tackles, 1 sack, 2 INT), one of the league's more active and instinctive linebackers, and second-year thumper Brandon Spikes (47 tackles) makes this area probably New England's greatest strength on defense. Spikes missed eight games with a knee injury before returning to action for the regular-season finale, and it's not a coincidence that the Pats were tougher against the run after he came back. The 24-year-old also had a big day in the conference title game, registering a team-best nine tackles and coming up with a key fourth-quarter interception.
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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