Hoyas head north to battle Friars

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/09/2010 - Providence, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off a statement victory, the Georgetown Hoyas are slated to collide with the Providence Friars this evening in a Big East Conference affair.

Georgetown had lost two of its previous three games heading into Saturday's meeting with a Villanova squad that was undefeated in Big East play and ranked second in the country. Therefore, the Hoyas' 103-90 victory over the Wildcats in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated was certainly surprising. Through 22 outings, Georgetown is now 17-5 overall, including 7-4 in conference.

Providence is in desperate need of a victory tonight, as the team has suffered three consecutive defeats, and the 4-7 Big East record clearly overshadows a 12-11 overall mark. The Friars were most recently in action on Saturday when they fell to Marquette in an 82-79 final.

The Hoyas own a 38-19 series advantage over the Friars, which includes three straight wins over Providence.

Austin Freeman scored 25 points for Georgetown against Villanova on Saturday, and Jason Clark was close behind with 24 on the strength of his 6-of-7 showing from three-point range. Greg Monroe posted 19 points, eight rebounds and six assists, while Julian Vaughn contributed 13 points. The Hoyas shot a stellar 56.3 percent from the field and earned a 39-17 edge in points from the foul line. They did commit 20 turnovers, but the positives clearly outweighed the negatives. Overall this season, Freeman leads the team with 16.8 ppg on 54.5 percent field goal efficiency, including 50 percent from beyond the arc. Monroe adds 15.5 ppg and 9.6 rpg, while Chris Wright adds 14.3 ppg and 4.0 apg. Clark brings 11.1 ppg to the floor for the Hoyas, who are scoring 73.9 ppg while allowing 64.4 ppg to foes. They are shooting 50.5 percent while surrendering 40.8 percent shooting.

Sophomore Jamine Peterson is the best player on the Providence roster, as he is scoring 18.7 ppg to go along with 10.1 rpg. Sharaud Curry checks in with 15.5 ppg and 3.6 apg, and Marshon Brooks contributes 14.3 ppg. The Friars are generating 82.3 ppg while surrendering 79.0 ppg to opponents. In the most recent outing against Marquette, Peterson scored 28 points and pulled down 11 rebounds in 35 minutes of action. Curry pitched in 23 points on the strength of a 5-of-9 effort from three-point range, and Bilal Dixon posted 13 points and 14 rebounds. Despite the efforts of those players and a 39-29 rebounding advantage, the Friars could not overcome shaky defense, as they permitted the Golden Eagles to shoot 51.7 percent from the floor.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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