Lightning escape Verizon Center with win over Caps

Hockey Betting Lines

03/12/2010 - Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Walker had a goal and an assist as the Tampa Bay Lightning got a big win in a 3-2 decision over the Washington Capitals at the Verizon Center.

Vincent Lecavalier and Brandon Bochenski each had goal for the Lightning, who had dropped seven of eight coming in. Antero Niittymaki made 28 stops in the win.

It is a big two points for Tampa Bay as the team now has 68 and sits four points back of Boston for the final playoff seed in the East.

Tomas Fleischmann and Brooks Laich each had a goal for the Capitals, who had won four of their previous five. Alex Ovechkin had two assists while Semyon Varlamov made 24 stops.

Washington came into the game having been crowned the Southeast Division champions on Thursday. Despite not playing, the Caps won the division for the third straight year thanks to Atlanta's loss to Columbus.

The Capitals opened the scoring with a power-play tally as Ovechkin fired a pass through the seam from the left point over to the right side where Fleischmann one-timed it home.

Tampa, though, tied it with 48.9 seconds left in the opening frame as Bochenski lasered the puck into the left corner from the right circle for his second goal of the season.

The Lightning took a 2-1 lead with 8:30 left in the second. A left circle faceoff win saw the puck come back to Stephane Veilleux, who left a drop pass for Walker's one-timer past Varlamov.

It was a 3-1 game when Walker fired a shot from the right point that went off of Lecavalier and in. It was initially ruled to not be a goal as the official thought that Lecavalier hit it with a high stick, but the replay showed that it went off Lecavalier and he was awarded his 19th goal of the season.

Niittymaki was solid in the second period as his 14 saves helped the team take a two-goal lead into the break.

Skating on the man advantage, the Caps made it a one-goal game with 8:51 to play. A Mike Green wrist shot from the high slot was re-directed by Laich in front of the net. Niittymaki was there to make the save, but Laich put home the rebound for his 21st goal of the season.

Game Notes

Fleischmann's goal was his 20th of the season, a new career high...Tampa Bay hosts Pittsburgh on Sunday...Washington hits the road for four games beginning in Chicago on Sunday...Despite the loss, Washington has taken 14 of the last 16 games against Tampa...Washington went 2-for-4 on the power play while Tampa was 0-for-1.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.