Oregon QB Masoli suspended for 2010 after burglary

NCAA Football Betting Lines

03/13/2010 -

Just 10 weeks ago the future couldn't have looked brighter for Oregon football.

Sure, the Ducks had just lost to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, but the team was back in Pasadena for the first time since 1995. And Oregon was going into the 2010 season as the reigning Pac-10 champions, returning versatile quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and young rushing star LaMichael James.

But since then, Oregon's bright future has dimmed considerably as player after player has run into trouble - including Masoli and James.

Both appeared in Lane County court Friday to plead guilty in separate cases. Oregon coach Chip Kelly acted soon thereafter, suspending Masoli for the upcoming season. James, along with place-kicker Rob Beard, were suspended for the opener at home on Sept. 14 against New Mexico.

Kelly read a to-the-point statement at a brief news conference. He did not take questions.

``The actions that our players take when they're in the community and they're not on the football field or in the classroom, are just as important to us,'' he said. ``How they behave as student-athletes here, it's not just on the field. And if they cross that line, I've said all along there will be a punishment that will go along with that.''

Some believed that Masoli, who had been considered a potential Heisman candidate, would be dismissed from the team. But he was allowed to stay on scholarship and may practice with the team. He has the option of using a redshirt year.

Masoli pleaded guilty to second-degree burglary in the theft of a pair of laptops and a guitar from a campus fraternity in late January. A plea deal reduced his charge from a felony to a misdemeanor.

Former Ducks receiver Garrett Embry also pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge of second-degree burglary in connection with the case.

Both were sentenced to 12 months of probation and 140 hours of community service. Together they must also pay $5,000 restitution.

In the same courtroom hours earlier, James pleaded guilty to misdemeanor harassment in connection to an altercation with a former girlfriend last month.

James was sentenced to 10 days in jail and 24 months of probation. He reported to jail on Friday afternoon but was quickly released and instead put on electronic surveillance for the duration of his sentence.

James, who set a Pac-10 freshman record with more than 1,500 yards rushing last season, originally faced five misdemeanor charges, including strangulation, harassment and assault. All but one harassment charge were dropped.

In a statement that was included in court documents related to the case, James apologized to his former girlfriend, who claimed he grabbed her neck and pushed her to the ground during an argument.

``I hope to put this matter behind me now and learn from it. I have made a mistake and accept the consequences,'' the statement said. ``I look forward to demonstrating to my University, to my team and to the community that I am a better man than recent events suggest.''

James rushed for 1,546 yards last season, the ninth-highest total in the nation. He had seven consecutive 100-yard games before Ohio State limited him to 70 in Oregon's 26-17 loss in the Rose Bowl.

Masoli threw for 2,147 yards and 15 touchdowns last season. He also rushed for 668 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Beard pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor harassment charge last week for his role in a Jan. 24 street fight that left him seriously injured. He was placed on probation.

Others on the team who have gotten into trouble include linebacker Kiko Alonso, who pleaded not guilty to drunken driving charges in Eugene Municipal Court last week. Kelly suspended Alonso for the 2010 season upon learning of the arrest.

Defensive end Matt Simms was dismissed by Kelly after he was cited on assault charges last month. Simms pleaded guilty to physical harassment for striking a man he thought had beaten Beard.

Receiver Jamere Holland was dismissed from the team by Kelly after posting vulgar comments and criticizing Kelly on the Facebook social networking site.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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